Election Subversion 2024: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Donald Trump and Efforts to Undermine the 2024 Election: What to Expect After Election Night

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, concerns over the integrity of the democratic process are intensifying, with former President Donald Trump and his supporters making concerted efforts to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the upcoming election. Following his defeat in 2020, Trump has consistently claimed—without evidence—that widespread voter fraud cost him the presidency. These false claims have not only undermined faith in the electoral system but have also spurred actions that could potentially disrupt the 2024 election, both during and after Election Day.

Trump’s Campaign of Misinformation and False Claims

Donald Trump’s assertions of a “stolen” 2020 election have laid the groundwork for what may be a repeat scenario in 2024. Throughout his campaign, Trump has doubled down on the narrative that the U.S. electoral system is corrupt and riddled with fraud. Despite dozens of court rulings rejecting claims of widespread fraud in 2020, Trump continues to sow distrust in mail-in voting, electronic voting machines, and the role of election officials.

Trump’s supporters, including many Republican lawmakers, have amplified these baseless claims, which have gained significant traction within certain segments of the electorate. This ongoing rhetoric not only undermines confidence in the 2024 election but also encourages efforts to challenge and disrupt the voting process. This includes calls for intense scrutiny of election procedures, surveillance of polling places, and efforts to disqualify votes on technicalities—all of which could delay the election’s outcome and further polarize the nation.

Election Laws and Changes to Voting Procedures

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Republican-led state legislatures across the country passed a wave of new voting laws, many of which critics argue are designed to suppress voter turnout, particularly among minority communities and Democratic voters. These laws include restrictions on mail-in voting, stricter voter ID requirements, limitations on ballot drop boxes, and purges of voter rolls.

In some key battleground states, efforts to restrict early voting and absentee voting have raised concerns that these measures will make it more difficult for voters to cast their ballots, potentially skewing the election in favor of Republicans. On the other hand, supporters of these laws argue that they are necessary to ensure election security and prevent fraud, though evidence of widespread fraud remains absent.

Additionally, in several states, Trump allies have sought to install partisan figures in positions that oversee elections, raising fears that these officials could manipulate vote counts or obstruct certification processes. This move has sparked worries that the integrity of election administration could be compromised in pivotal states, potentially triggering prolonged legal battles over the results.

What to Expect After Election Night

Given the contentious nature of the election and the groundwork being laid to contest results, it is increasingly likely that 2024 will not see a clear winner on election night. Much like 2020, where it took several days for all mail-in and absentee ballots to be counted, the final result may be delayed—especially in states where there are new barriers to voting or where recounts are demanded.

Trump and his supporters have already signaled that they will challenge any close result if it does not go their way. These challenges could involve litigation in multiple states, accusations of fraud, and calls for audits or recounts, potentially dragging the country through a protracted and divisive post-election period.

Here’s what to expect after election night:

  1. Legal Challenges and Disputes: If the results are close, Trump’s campaign is likely to file lawsuits in key battleground states, alleging irregularities or fraud. These legal battles could delay certification of the results, as was seen in 2020, when Trump’s legal team filed dozens of lawsuits contesting the outcome in several states—none of which succeeded in overturning results.
  2. Electoral College Disruptions: Trump’s allies may attempt to interfere with the Electoral College certification process. In 2020, there was an effort to replace state electors with “alternate” slates loyal to Trump, a move that failed but could be attempted again. This would create chaos and uncertainty as Congress moves to officially certify the election results in early January 2025.
  3. Post-Election Protests and Potential Violence: The political climate in 2024 is even more polarized than it was in 2020. Misinformation and calls for election audits have the potential to spur protests from both sides. Trump’s supporters could mobilize to challenge election results through rallies or direct actions, and tensions could escalate, particularly if there is a perception that the election is being “stolen” from either candidate. The January 6th Capitol insurrection in 2021 serves as a sobering reminder of how quickly election disputes can lead to violence.
  4. Pressure on Election Officials: Election officials, particularly in swing states, may come under intense pressure to reverse or delay certification. These officials, some of whom faced threats and intimidation in 2020, could again find themselves in the crosshairs of partisan attacks. Their ability to stand firm under such pressure will be critical in ensuring a fair process.
  5. Congressional Role in Certifying the Election: Congress is constitutionally tasked with certifying the Electoral College results. If Trump’s allies in Congress—many of whom remain loyal to him—challenge the legitimacy of the electoral votes in certain states, this could lead to prolonged debates and further erode public confidence in the outcome. In 2021, several Republican lawmakers objected to the certification of Biden’s victory, and similar objections could surface again in 2025.

The Broader Impact on American Democracy

The stakes of the 2024 election go beyond determining who will occupy the Oval Office. The ongoing attempts to delegitimize the electoral process threaten to undermine the very foundation of American democracy. If one party refuses to accept the outcome of a free and fair election, it risks creating a constitutional crisis and eroding public trust in democratic institutions.

In this climate, the role of the judiciary, independent election officials, and bipartisan safeguards will be critical in ensuring that the election is conducted fairly and transparently. However, with political tensions at a fever pitch and trust in institutions at a low point, the post-election period could become a battleground for competing narratives about the legitimacy of the result.

Ultimately, the 2024 election will not only determine the next president but also test the resilience of the democratic process itself. Whether America can emerge from this election with its institutions intact will depend on the commitment of its leaders—and its citizens—to uphold the rule of law and the principles of democracy.

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