Russian Gas Flows to Europe Halt as Ukraine Cuts Transit Amid Expired Agreement
Russian gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine came to a halt on New Year’s Day, marking a historic break in a key energy supply route that dates back to Soviet times. The cessation followed the expiration of a transit agreement signed in 2019, and it comes as Europe continues its efforts to reduce dependency on Russian energy sources amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
At 8:00 AM Moscow time (5:00 AM GMT), Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom confirmed the termination of gas deliveries through Ukraine, signaling the end of an energy link that had survived the three years of full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the move as a significant blow to Moscow, calling it “one of Russia’s biggest defeats.”
Zelenskyy highlighted the shift in Ukraine’s energy landscape, noting that when Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power over 25 years ago, Ukraine served as the transit hub for more than 130 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually. Today, that number stands at zero, with no gas flowing through Ukraine into Europe.
The decision to stop the gas flow prompted immediate reactions from European leaders, with Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico condemning the move. Fico, who had lobbied against the cutoff in recent months, expressed his concern over the severe impact on Slovakia and the broader European Union, warning that halting gas transit would have drastic consequences for energy security.
However, in contrast, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called the development a “new victory” for Europe, as it marks another step in the continent’s ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy.
The most immediate impact was felt in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, where power and heating were cut off to hundreds of thousands of residents on Wednesday morning. The local energy provider, Tirasteploenergo, advised citizens to dress warmly, huddle together in a single room, and avoid using stoves to heat their homes, warning that improper heating methods could result in tragedy. Authorities in the region have not yet provided a timeline for when power will be restored.
The gas route through Ukraine has been a key part of Russia’s energy infrastructure for decades. The pipeline, which stretches from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region to Uzhhorod in Ukraine, was frequently the source of tension, with Russia often accused of using the gas flow to exert political pressure on Ukraine and Europe. Despite the geopolitical friction, the pipeline remained operational, providing vital transit revenue for both Russia and Ukraine, even as relations between the two countries deteriorated following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The war in Ukraine and the disruption to European energy markets have led to a steep decline in Russian gas exports to the EU. Prior to the invasion, Russia supplied approximately 35% of Europe’s gas. Today, that figure has dropped to about 8%, with European nations scrambling to diversify their energy sources. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022, which had once linked Russia directly to Germany, further exacerbated the energy crisis.
However, Russia’s allies in Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria continue to depend on Russian gas, which has led to tensions within the European Union. Slovakia has estimated that the cessation of the Ukraine gas transit will cost the country approximately €150 million in increased energy costs. These costs are expected to be passed on to consumers, and Fico has been vocal about the potential economic ramifications.
As Ukraine’s gas transit agreement expired, the Zelenskyy administration made the decision not to extend the deal, citing the strategic importance of cutting off Russia’s lucrative transit revenues. Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyy, have stated that allowing Russia to continue its gas trade would only empower the Kremlin’s war efforts and political machinations.
“We won’t allow them to earn additional billions off our blood,” Zelenskyy declared last month. “The only option we would consider would be if consumers deferred payments until after the war, but that was never a solution acceptable to Gazprom or the Kremlin.”
The only remaining operational pipeline for Russian gas to Europe is TurkStream, which runs beneath the Black Sea, serving Hungary and Serbia. Analysts predict that the cessation of Ukrainian transit will not cause a major disruption to gas prices in the EU, as the volume of Russian gas that flowed through Ukraine accounted for just 5% of Europe’s gas needs.
In Moldova, the consequences of the gas cutoff are particularly severe. Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region that relies heavily on Russian energy, has already seen a loss of heating and hot water. The Moldovan government, which has been striving for closer ties with the European Union, is looking for alternative energy solutions to alleviate the crisis, but the situation remains dire.
Moldovan officials have expressed frustration over Russia’s role in the region, accusing Moscow of using energy as a political tool. The Moldovan government spokesperson, Daniel Vodă, assured the public that the central authorities were actively seeking ways to provide energy and heat to Transnistria’s residents.
In the wake of the gas cutoff, some leaders in the EU have called for increased investment in renewable energy and greater reliance on alternative suppliers, such as Azerbaijan and North Africa, to mitigate the impact of the Russian supply gap.
As the European energy landscape continues to evolve amid the ongoing conflict, the halting of Russian gas transit through Ukraine represents both a challenge and a turning point in Europe’s efforts to break free from its dependence on Russian energy.
