President-Elect Trump’s Plan for Mass Deportations Sparks Economic Concerns
President-elect Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to a sweeping immigration enforcement policy, saying he has “no choice” but to pursue mass deportations, while dismissing any concerns about the cost. Trump announced on Sunday that Tom Homan, former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), will serve as the administration’s “border czar.” Homan has pledged to create the largest deportation force in U.S. history and has indicated that workplace enforcement operations targeting undocumented workers will resume.
Homan’s proposed policies, which include the end of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for certain foreign workers, are predicted to impact several economic sectors, particularly those dependent on immigrant labor. Industries such as construction, agriculture, and housing may face significant labor shortages, causing potential economic ripples and affecting supply chains, economists warn. According to one estimate, GDP could decline by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion if mass deportation policies proceed.
Industry Leaders Raise Economic Concerns
The potential economic impact of these policies has raised alarms among business leaders and economists. Jason Leverant, president of the AtWork Group staffing agency, says his company is bracing for potential labor shortages. “Mass deportation could leave as many as one million unfilled jobs,” Leverant explained, citing particular concern for sectors like agriculture and warehouse operations, which rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Similarly, Chad Prinkey, CEO of Well Built Construction Consulting, foresees a major impact on the construction industry, where immigrant labor constitutes a substantial portion of the workforce. “One in eight construction workers in the U.S. is undocumented,” Prinkey noted. Losing these workers could drive up costs, delay building projects, and exacerbate housing shortages. Prinkey added, “This could paralyze housing construction, especially in cities with significant immigrant populations.”
The American Immigration Council echoed Prinkey’s concerns, estimating that removing undocumented workers from the labor force would lead to longer construction timelines and reduced affordability in the housing market.
Broader Labor Shortages Anticipated
Labor shortages could extend beyond low-wage jobs, affecting skilled positions in the tech sector as well. Janeesa Hollingshead, head of expansion at Uber Works, highlighted that the tech industry relies heavily on H-1B visa holders to fill technical roles. “The tech sector would also feel the impact,” Hollingshead said, noting that restrictions on H-1B visas could deter highly skilled workers from coming to the U.S.
Under Trump’s first administration, stricter enforcement led to a higher rate of H-1B visa denials, though some of these were later overturned. Hollingshead worries that a repeat of these policies would lead companies to seek talent from alternative sources or face a deeper talent shortage.
Mixed Signals on Economic Impact
Trump has downplayed concerns about economic fallout, instead suggesting that his immigration policies would attract new businesses to the U.S. He stated, “We want people to come in … but we want people that aren’t necessarily sitting in a jail because they murdered seven people.”
However, according to an analysis by the American Immigration Council, the proposed mass deportation program could cost up to $88 billion annually, potentially reaching $967 billion over a decade if deportation efforts target one million people per year. The council suggests this would further strain an already tight labor market and could result in increased prices for consumers, supply shortages, and reduced access to goods and services.
Future of U.S. Immigration Policy
Experts are skeptical of the feasibility of a mass deportation effort on this scale. David Leopold, chair of the immigration practice at U.B. Greensfelder, noted the logistical challenges, stating, “It is very expensive to remove 11 million people.” He believes that if Trump’s administration follows through, they will likely require assistance from local law enforcement and federal agencies.
Despite this, some immigration reform advocates argue for a stricter, skills-based approach to immigration. Conservative think tank American Compass has called for mandatory E-Verify checks for employers and severe penalties for repeat offenders, alongside short-term work permits for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for extended periods.
As Trump prepares to take office, questions remain about the scope and economic implications of his immigration policies. Experts across sectors warn that while deportations may fulfill political promises, they could also pose significant challenges for the American economy, leaving some industries struggling to keep up with demand.
