The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday May 3rd, promises to deliver both high-end star power and the intrigue that only a 20-horse field can offer. At the head of affairs stands Journalism (3-1) — a deserving favorite who checks every imaginable box heading into Churchill Downs’ biggest day. In my opinion, there hasn’t been a more formidable Derby favorite since American Pharoah in 2015, and much like that Triple Crown hero, Journalism looks poised to stamp his class on the first Saturday in May.
Yet while Journalism appears a worthy top choice, Sovereignty (5-1) looms as a prime contender in his own right. The Derby often rewards those who can look beyond the obvious and uncover hidden gems to fill out the trifecta and superfecta. Even in formful years, the Derby payouts are lucrative — the $1 trifecta paid $202 in 2015 when three of the top four choices finished 1-2-3, and the 2016 superfecta featuring Nyquist and the next three favorites returned $542.
Let’s dive deeper into this year’s leading players and the longshots who could spice up the payoffs:
The Horse to Beat
Journalism (3-1)
The fastest horse on paper is also the most versatile. Journalism boasts a perfect style for the Derby: tactical speed to sit mid-pack and the turn of foot to pounce before deep closers arrive. His win in the San Felipe (G2) showed he can run down lone speeds, and his relentless rally in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) proved his resilience through adversity. A son of Curlin, Journalism moves with the athleticism and efficiency that few Derby favorites have possessed in recent years. This is not a year to overcomplicate matters at the top — Journalism is the real deal.
Main Threat
Sovereignty (5-1)
The son of Into Mischief has flashed an electric late kick, winning the Street Sense (G3) and Fountain of Youth (G2) with devastating rallies. Trainer Bill Mott smartly used the Florida Derby (G1) as a maintenance prep after clinching Derby points earlier. Sovereignty will have plenty of pace to chase and should be flying late. He feels like a must-use in the trifecta.
Value Plays to Spice Up Exotics
Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Japan continues its global racing assault, and Luxor Cafe brings serious credentials. A two-time winner over left-handed courses in Japan, he flashed a sharp turn of foot winning the Fukuryu Stakes and beat Admire Daytona twice — the latter returning to win the UAE Derby. With American Pharoah bloodlines, he seems poised to adapt well to U.S. dirt.
Grande (20-1)
Todd Pletcher’s improving son of Curlin was forced wide chasing a loose leader in the Wood Memorial (G2) yet kept on gamely. With a better trip and a hot pace to close into, Grande could take another step forward at the right time.
Final Gambit (30-1)
The ultimate wild card. Though untested on dirt, his explosive win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) hints at hidden potential. The 27-point Beyer Speed Figure jump is eye-popping, and while regression is possible, his top-end upside makes him an appealing bomb.
Other Key Runners
Sandman (6-1)
A grinding deep closer who capitalized on a fast pace in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He’s solid, but the longer-priced closers listed above offer better value.
Rodriguez (12-1)
Bob Baffert’s colt is dangerous if allowed an easy lead, but with so much speed signed on, that seems unlikely. Still, he’s the most intriguing of the front-runners after a strong Wood Memorial win.
Tiztastic (20-1)
An eye-catching Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, but questions remain about the strength of that prep and his prior defeats to stronger foes.
Burnham Square (12-1)
Blue Grass Stakes winner fits the Derby distance but lacks the explosiveness needed to win; a minor award is his ceiling.
Publisher (30-1)
The lone maiden in the field. Connections of Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz Jr. make him interesting underneath at a giant price.
Front-End Faders and Toss Outs
Several horses appear compromised by the hot early pace expected:
- Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, Neoequos, American Promise, Admire Daytona — All at their best when controlling the lead and likely to falter when they don’t.
- Coal Battle, Flying Mohawk, Render Judgment — Light on figures and unlikely to impact late.
- Chunk of Gold — Nice story, but losing ground late at shorter distances is a poor Derby omen.
Final Thoughts
With Journalism and Sovereignty standing tall, this feels like a Derby where the cream will rise to the top. However, there are just enough intriguing mid-priced closers — particularly Luxor Cafe, Grande, and Final Gambit — to make the trifecta and superfecta incredibly attractive.
Even in the most predictable Kentucky Derby scenarios, finding the right longshot for third or fourth can yield life-changing payoffs. In 2025, Journalism could very well follow the path of American Pharoah — but smart bettors will still be digging for gold underneath.
