Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat with a Tiny Risk
If you’re marking your calendars, December 22, 2032, is a date worth noting—though not for the reasons you might think. On that day, an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 will make a close pass by Earth, and while the odds of a collision are low, the event has generated growing concern among scientists. NASA currently estimates the chances of a direct hit at just 2.3%, a slight increase from the earlier 1.2% risk calculated in January. This bump has raised the asteroid’s threat level past the 1% threshold, prompting reports to key planetary defense organizations, including the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy, the United Nations’ Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, and the U.N.’s Office for Outer Space Affairs.
Although the risk is small, it is not insignificant. Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring between 130 and 300 feet across, is hardly a world-ending threat—its size pales in comparison to the asteroid responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs, which is believed to have been up to nine miles wide. Yet, the potential impact of this smaller asteroid is far from negligible. In 2013, a much smaller object, just 65 feet across, exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, causing significant damage, injuring over 1,500 people, and destroying thousands of buildings.
The potential for damage from 2024 YR4 isn’t something to dismiss. On the Torino Scale, which ranks asteroid hazards from 0 (no risk) to 10 (a global catastrophe), this asteroid currently holds a 3—indicating a potential for localized destruction, though far from a civilization-threatening disaster. The object’s velocity—about 38,000 mph, more than twice the speed of an Earth-orbiting satellite—means that even a relatively small asteroid like 2024 YR4 could pack a significant punch if it collides with Earth.
The discovery of 2024 YR4 came on December 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. Its fast-moving trajectory and size immediately placed it under close scrutiny. Thanks to its near-Earth object (NEO) status, astronomers began to monitor the asteroid closely. NEOs are defined as objects that orbit within 1.3 astronomical units of the sun—roughly 120 million miles. The location of 2024 YR4 means it is within the realm of asteroids that could, at least theoretically, impact Earth.
To ensure a coordinated global response, 2024 YR4’s discovery was quickly relayed to the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a consortium of 59 governments and space programs. The IAWN tracks thousands of NEOs, keeping a vigilant eye on their trajectories to determine potential risks to Earth.
Currently, there are roughly 38,000 NEOs under observation by NASA and international space agencies. As of now, 2024 YR4 is easily observable, but its path will soon take it behind the sun, rendering it invisible until 2028. Before that happens, NASA has reserved observation time on the James Webb Space Telescope, which will provide further insight into the asteroid’s size, mass, and trajectory.
In terms of potential impact, a rough area has already been identified, ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean to northern South America, the Atlantic coast of Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. However, as 2024 YR4 becomes visible again, astronomers will be able to refine this estimate and potentially identify a more precise impact zone.
So, should we be worried? The odds remain slim, but the potential consequences are serious enough to merit monitoring. Luckily, humanity is not sitting idly by. NASA’s 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully demonstrated the ability to alter an asteroid’s orbit by crashing a spacecraft into it. The test was aimed at proving the feasibility of deflecting an asteroid if one were ever to threaten Earth, and the results exceeded expectations—accelerating the target asteroid’s orbit by 32 minutes.
While much work remains to be done to develop a comprehensive planetary defense system, the technology already exists to divert a potential collision. In the meantime, we are not entirely powerless against the threat. Even if a near-Earth object like 2024 YR4 were to be headed for impact, early warnings would allow for potential evacuation or sheltering measures, as outlined in studies and emergency protocols established by governments.
In short, there’s no need to panic, but it’s essential to stay informed. Global cooperation, ongoing research, and advancements in space technology are all working to ensure that if an asteroid does pose a threat, we’ll be ready to act. For now, December 22, 2032, remains a distant concern, and the scientific community continues its vigilance in monitoring the skies for potential threats.
