How Far Will the Bills Go This Season?
The Buffalo Bills have long had a fierce rivalry with the Kansas City Chiefs, and last season, the postseason playoffs ended in disappointment for the Buffalo-Niagara region side. In the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs came out on top 32-29 and marched to their third consecutive Super Bowl.
Despite their offensive output in the championship game, it wasn’t the Bills’ day. They started badly. Quarterback James Cook didn’t get the ball enough, cornerback Christian Benford was injured, and receivers weren’t productive enough. The Bills’ offense hadn’t anticipated the onslaught that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had lined up for the Bills. The team also couldn’t stop the final play.
Below is a look at why the Bills could have a better run this season, the areas where they’ve improved, and how their season could end.
How the 2025 season could be the one where it all goes right for the Bills
The Bills have frustrated their fans, having been AFC champions from 2020 to 2024, but 2025 could be the season everything goes right. The team has a decent schedule and a well-stacked roster, including quarterback (QB) Josh Allen, who rarely misses a start, as their leading man.
Offensively, the Bills looked good last season and set a franchise record for the most points (525) and touchdowns (65) in one season. Their offensive line also allowed the fewest sacks by any team in a season since 2009, which was 14.
Note, of course, that Allen isn’t the Bills’ only key player. Offensive tackle Dion Dawkins will also be decisive in their fortunes this season. The veteran has been a mainstay on the Bills’ offensive line since 2017 and made 16 starts in 2024. Minor injuries prevented him from playing to his best at times, but overall, he performed solidly and allowed only three sacks in the season
Where could the Bills finish?
If you’re a Bills fan, you’ll be hoping they finish in the Levis Stadium, San Francisco Bay, and lifting the Lombardi trophy on February 8, 2026, Super Bowl day. After their comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, the team shifted from +700 on the sports betting moneylines to between +550 and +650, depending on who you bet with, and has become the favorite.
The comeback win of 41-40 against the Ravens has proven just how strong the Bills are offensively, which is something to consider if you’re looking at point spreads featuring the Bills. In the game’s final quarter, they scored more than 15 points in just four minutes.
The comeback showed, however, that if the Bills will challenge for the Super Bowl, they will have to do some work on defense. That means improving their play on the defensive side of the ball in crucial situations. The team ranked last in pressure rate (20%) when their opponents had a chance to tie or go ahead in the final quarter or in overtime. They also allowed opponents to convert 44.54% of their third-down opportunities, the third-highest in the league.
The Bills’ focus
After a strong offensive performance in 2024, the Bills knew they should be concentrating on defense and went to work on that. Not only did they add Joey Bosa and Larry Ogunjobi in free agency, but they also took advantage of the 2025 draft to continue reinforcing the defense. Six of their seven picks were defensive players, including first-rounder Maxwell Hairston and defensive linemen TJ Sanders and Landon Jackson. How things will pan out is uncertain, but the team will surely have one or two defensive mainstays.
Another primary drive by the team has been rewarding and reinvesting in young draft players. This offseason, the Bills re-signed four players from the 2022 draft class: running back James Cook, wide receiver Khalil Shakir, linebacker Terrel Bernard, and cornerback Christian Benford. The “new core,” as their coach has called them, has developed immensely since they arrived, but has still reached their ceiling. They’re developing leadership qualities too, either by leading by example, leading vocally on the field, or both.
The Bills have been dominant in the AFC East division but have yet to lay their hands on a Super Bowl title. Offensively, the team is strong, but defensively, there’s work to do, even though the Bills recognized this at the end of the 2024 season and reinforced their defense in the offseason and the 2025 draft. Sportsbooks have placed their confidence in the Bills to win the Super Bowl, but there’s still a long way to go, so that the odds could change. For now, however, the Bills look as if they could pull it off and end the Super Bowl heartaches of the past.
