Rising Numbers Across the U.S.
COVID-19 cases are climbing sharply in much of the country. According to the CDC, infections are growing or likely growing in more than 30 states, with only a handful showing declining trends. Wastewater surveillance, a reliable early warning system, has detected increasing viral activity nationwide, especially in the West. Test positivity rates are also rising, with California’s rate nearly doubling since mid-summer. Hospitalizations are beginning to reflect the surge, though so far they remain below the catastrophic peaks of earlier waves.
What’s Driving the Surge
Several factors are fueling this new wave. The biggest driver is the emergence of new subvariants, including NB.1.8.1 (nicknamed “Nimbus”) and LP.8.1, both of which are highly transmissible and show signs of immune evasion. At the same time, immunity is waning for many people whose last infection or booster was months ago. Seasonal changes and behavior shifts are also playing a role as schools have reopened, more people are gathering indoors, and summer travel brought large crowds together. Finally, vaccination rates for updated boosters remain low, and public health precautions have been largely relaxed.
Who Is Most at Risk
The groups most vulnerable to severe outcomes remain the same. Older adults, particularly those over 65, face the highest risks of hospitalization and death. People with weakened immune systems or chronic health conditions are also at heightened risk. Young children, especially those under four who may not have completed vaccination, face exposure in schools and daycare. Anyone who hasn’t received a booster or had a recent infection is also more susceptible to catching the virus.
How This Surge Differs from Past Waves
Unlike the devastating winter surges of 2020 and 2021, this current rise in cases has not yet resulted in a parallel spike in deaths. That is due in part to better tools—vaccines, boosters, and antiviral treatments are now widely available. Surveillance has also shifted, with experts relying more on wastewater data, hospitalization rates, and test positivity instead of confirmed case counts. Still, the surge is significant, and the virus continues to evolve.
Steps to Protect Yourself
Health experts recommend doubling down on proven prevention tools. Vaccination and boosters remain the most effective defense, especially for older adults and high-risk groups. Masking in crowded indoor spaces and during travel reduces exposure, particularly with high-quality respirators like N95s. Improving indoor air quality through open windows or HEPA filters can cut transmission. Rapid tests remain an essential tool to confirm infection early, and antivirals like Paxlovid should be used promptly for those at high risk. Staying alert to local data can help communities respond quickly to changes.
The Bottom Line
COVID-19 is on the rise again across the United States, driven by new variants, fading immunity, and a return to indoor living. While we are better prepared than in previous years, the threat remains real, especially for the most vulnerable. The pandemic may not dominate headlines as it once did, but the virus hasn’t disappeared. Smart precautions now can prevent another severe winter wave.
