The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four is set, and for the first time since 2008, all four teams remaining are No. 1 seeds. Following the matchup between Florida and Auburn at 6:09 p.m. ET, the Houston Cougars and Duke Blue Devils will battle for a spot in the national championship game at 8:49 p.m. ET, with both games airing on CBS.
While Houston has long been known for its defensive prowess under head coach Kelvin Sampson, the difference-maker this season has been the Cougars’ ability to knock down perimeter shots. Houston leads the nation in three-point shooting, converting nearly 40% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Three of their starters are shooting 42% or better from deep, and the Cougars have averaged nine made threes per game in the NCAA Tournament.
In their Elite Eight victory over Tennessee, Houston put the game out of reach by draining five three-pointers in the final five and a half minutes. If the Cougars continue their hot shooting, they could prove too much for Duke to handle.
The Cougars will have their hands full trying to contain Duke’s high-powered offense, which is statistically the most efficient in the KenPom era (since 1996-97). Houston’s goal will be to turn this game into a physical, half-court battle where they can use their experience and physicality to disrupt Duke’s young stars. If Houston’s defense can force Duke into tough shots and limit transition opportunities, the Cougars could gain the upper hand.
Duke has been dominant all season due to its sheer depth and elite talent. Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, alongside NBA prospects Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel, the Blue Devils boast one of the most skilled rosters in the country. Their depth is just as impressive, with players like Caleb Foster, Isaiah Evans, and Patrick Ngongba II coming off the bench—each of whom could be starters on many teams.
Duke has also shown resilience, winning the ACC Tournament despite Flagg being sidelined with an injury. With a roster stacked with future NBA talent, the Blue Devils have proved they can adjust and excel against any style of play.
While Houston thrives from three-point range, Duke’s defensive success stems from its ability to control the paint. Against Alabama in the Sweet 16, Duke forced the Crimson Tide into difficult shots and dominated the interior, outscoring them in the paint by double digits. Maluach provides elite shot-blocking, Flagg is a relentless defender across all areas, and the Blue Devils make it difficult for opponents to establish a rhythm inside.
If Duke can contest Houston’s perimeter shots while maintaining its dominance in the paint, the Blue Devils will have the advantage in this Final Four showdown.
This game is shaping up to be a battle between Houston’s elite defense and three-point shooting against Duke’s high-powered offense and interior dominance. If the Cougars can turn the game into a physical, slow-paced affair while continuing their three-point barrage, they could punch their ticket to the national championship. However, if Duke’s size, talent, and defensive intensity shine through, the Blue Devils may prove too much to handle.
Expect a thrilling matchup as these two powerhouse programs fight for a spot in the title game.
