The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park has quietly turned into one of the most intriguing early Kentucky Derby prep races in recent memory, with a level of depth that’s already drawing comparisons to 2006, the year Barbaro launched his historic Derby run by completing the Holy Bull–Kentucky Derby double.
This year’s renewal may not feature a household name—yet—but it does showcase a fascinating mix of proven class, raw upside, and tactical intrigue over 1 1/16 miles, a distance that will test both stamina and maturity for these developing 3-year-olds.
The most interested horse in the field is Bravaro, a homebred colt by Upstart for owner Stephanie Baltzan. Bravaro announced himself last out with a breakout stakes performance, overcoming a demanding five-wide trip in a one-turn mile while still delivering a powerful finish. That effort came after pressing a legitimately fast pace, and the way he kept on strongly through the lane suggested there’s more under the hood.
Saturday will ask new questions. Bravaro stretches out to two turns for the first time and does so from post 8, never an easy assignment at Gulfstream. Still, at his expected price against more established names, he’s the horse I want most on my tickets. If Tyler Gaffalione can secure a forward, stalking position and time his move, Bravaro has the kind of acceleration that could produce a decisive far-turn blitz, similar to what he showed in the Sleepy Hollow.
The Gaffalione–Saffie Joseph Jr. connection is worth noting as well. That duo is coming off a Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup victory with Skippylongstocking, and momentum matters this time of year. Bravaro may not be the most likely winner on paper, but he’s my projected best bet.
Another intriguing contender is Global Aviator, who impressed in his debut despite breaking sluggishly. The speed figure from that race came back strong, and it’s easy to imagine a meaningful step forward with a cleaner start. If he handles the added distance—and there’s no immediate reason to doubt he will—he becomes a serious threat. At no worse than fourth choice, he offers value with upside.
The likely favorite, Cannoneer, has done little wrong since rebounding from a disappointing debut. Trained by Brad Cox, the $1.75 million purchase debuted last June amid heavy hype but failed to deliver. Since then, he’s put it all together, capped by a scintillating performance to close out the Churchill Downs fall meeting. If Cannoneer simply runs back to that race, he might be better than this group.
From a wagering standpoint, he’s the horse to key underneath or on top in exactas, particularly with Bravaro and Global Aviator, who offer more upside at a price.
With multiple horses making pivotal transitions—stretching out, turning back, or stepping up in class—the 2026 Holy Bull Stakes has all the ingredients of a meaningful Derby prep. Whether it produces the next Barbaro remains to be seen, but the talent on display suggests Saturday’s winner will be more than just a footnote on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
