The Stage Is Set to Overturn Gay Marriage And the Right Is Already Lining Up the Kill Shot
“If there ever was a case of exceptional importance … this should be it.” – Mathew Staver, attorney for Kim Davis
Ten years after the Supreme Court’s landmark Obergefell v. Hodges decision legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, the conservative legal machine has found its first direct opportunity to challenge it and they’re seizing it. Kim Davis, the former Kentucky county clerk who famously refused to issue marriage licenses to gay couples in 2015, is petitioning the high court to overturn Obergefell entirely, using religious liberty as her battering ram.
The Case: From Defiance to Supreme Court Petition
Davis’ case stems from a $100,000 jury verdict for emotional damages, plus $260,000 in attorney fees, awarded to David Ermold and David Moore the Kentucky couple she refused to serve. She argues the First Amendment’s “free exercise” protections shield her from liability, claiming that issuing the licenses violated her religious beliefs. More than that, her legal team calls Obergefell “egregiously wrong” and says it should be scrapped altogether. Her attorney, Mathew Staver, leans on rhetoric aimed squarely at the court’s conservative bloc: “The mistake must be corrected.” He derides Justice Anthony Kennedy’s 2015 majority opinion as “legal fiction,” echoing the anti-abortion playbook that successfully overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
A Broader Right-Wing Campaign
This case isn’t just about Davis it’s part of a coordinated effort. In 2025 alone, at least nine states have introduced or passed legislation to block marriage licenses for LGBTQ couples or formally urged the Supreme Court to reverse Obergefell, according to Lambda Legal. The Southern Baptist Convention voted overwhelmingly this year to prioritize dismantling same-sex marriage rights. This push has been emboldened by Justice Clarence Thomas’ explicit call in his Dobbs concurrence to revisit and overturn key precedents including Obergefell, Lawrence v. Texas, and Griswold v. Connecticut. In other words, the legal right’s agenda goes far beyond marriage equality, targeting the privacy rights and personal freedoms of millions.
Public Support and Political Risk
Gallup polling shows support for same-sex marriage holding steady at around 70% nationwide, but Republican support has collapsed from 55% in 2021 to just 41% in 2025. Conservatives in power know they are swimming against public opinion, but the current 6-3 conservative supermajority on the court makes them believe they can win through judicial activism rather than democratic consensus. As Josh Blackman, a conservative constitutional scholar, puts it: “It will be a long slog considering how popular same-sex marriage is now,” but the ideological groundwork is being laid. That groundwork looks a lot like the years-long legal chess game that led to Roe’s reversal.
What Happens If Obergefell Falls
Even if the court overturned Obergefell, the Respect for Marriage Act, passed in 2022, would require all states to recognize same-sex and interracial marriages performed elsewhere. But individual states could refuse to issue new licenses, effectively creating a patchwork of equality where your marriage rights depend on your ZIP code. That’s exactly the fractured, rights-by-state reality conservatives have pursued since Dobbs forcing Americans to cross state lines for rights they should have in their own communities.
The Stakes for the LGBTQ Community
There are currently 823,000 married same-sex couples in the U.S., including 591,000 who wed after Obergefell, according to UCLA’s Williams Institute. Nearly one in five are raising children. For these families, the possibility of rolling back federal marriage protections isn’t just a legal fight it’s a direct threat to their stability, safety, and dignity.
As William Powell, attorney for Ermold and Moore, bluntly put it: “Not a single judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals showed any interest in Davis’s rehearing petition, and we are confident the Supreme Court will likewise agree that Davis’s arguments do not merit further attention.”
But confidence isn’t protection. Progressives learned that the hard way with Roe. The religious right plays the long game, and their strategy is clear: use one seemingly fringe case to chip away at national rights until the foundation collapses.
If the court agrees to hear Davis’ case this fall, oral arguments could happen next spring with a decision by June 2026 right in the heart of another presidential election cycle. The question isn’t just whether same-sex marriage will survive, but whether we’re watching the start of another slow-motion rights rollback, one the right has been planning for years.
The warning from Dobbs still applies: when they tell you they’re coming for your rights, believe them.
Sources:
ABC News coverage of Kim Davis case
Gallup polling on same-sex marriage support
