Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Impact Probability Drops After Initial Surge: Still a Cause for Caution
MIAMI – An asteroid gaining attention for its potential to collide with Earth in 2032 has seen its chances of impact fluctuate in recent days. Initially estimated to have a 3% probability of striking the planet, the likelihood of collision dropped to about 1.5% on Wednesday, following additional analysis from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has been classified as a “city killer,” a term used to describe space rocks capable of causing devastating damage if they were to impact Earth. Since its discovery in December 2024, the asteroid’s potential to hit Earth on December 22, 2032, has been a subject of intense scrutiny.
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory initially estimated a 3.1% chance of a collision. While this estimate indicated a still-small risk, it raised alarms due to the rarity of such a high probability being publicly announced. The European Space Agency (ESA) released a slightly lower figure of 2.8%, and both agencies initially agreed that the asteroid’s probability of striking Earth was about 2%.
Protocols for alerting the public are triggered when the probability of a potential impact reaches the 1% threshold, which is exceedingly rare. The threshold serves as a formal alert, but as NASA and ESA experts emphasized, even a 3% probability means there’s a 97% chance of the asteroid missing Earth.
On February 19, NASA received new data that reduced the impact probability to 1.5%. Astronomers believe the chances could continue to decrease as more data is gathered in the coming weeks. “The impact probability will continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made,” NASA reported.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office, explained that much of the risk surrounding the asteroid stems from the “uncertainty area” in space, a zone where the asteroid’s exact position could vary. The recent reduction in risk is due to new insights into this area, which has allowed scientists to more accurately determine the asteroid’s potential trajectory.
“The size of the Earth — which is inside the uncertainty area — is compared to the entire area of uncertainty where the asteroid could be in that critical moment,” Moissl said. “As we gain more knowledge, this uncertainty will shrink, and the probability of impact will continue to drop.”
Experts remain cautious, noting that even with the high estimates, the asteroid’s chances of striking Earth are still relatively small. According to Moissl, “the expected case is that we will manage to shrink it so much that Earth is no longer inside this uncertainty region, and then the impact probability will drop to zero.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 will become more difficult to observe as it moves farther from Earth. The asteroid is expected to disappear from view by April 2024, and it will not be visible again until 2028. Until then, astronomers will continue to monitor its orbit using the James Webb Space Telescope, which will provide additional data before it vanishes from sight.
Despite the fluctuating probabilities, the asteroid is still classified as a potential risk, especially due to its size. With an estimated width of 40 to 90 meters, 2024 YR4 could potentially devastate a mid-sized city if it were to collide with Earth. If its actual size is closer to the upper end of that range, it could cause catastrophic damage to major metropolitan areas.
While experts stress that the asteroid is unlikely to hit Earth, its close flybys of our planet may lead to a moderate rise in impact probabilities. However, they assure the public that this remains “no cause for alarm.” In the coming months, experts anticipate that the probability of a collision will likely dip below 1%, as 2024 YR4 moves farther from Earth and more data is collected.
NASA and international space agencies continue to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory, taking the slim risk seriously while working to refine their predictions and minimize any potential danger to our planet.
