Trump Pollster John McLaughlin: Trump Outperforming Previous Campaigns in National Polls
Pollster John McLaughlin, who has been a key figure in former President Donald Trump’s campaigns, recently appeared on Newsmax and the Chris Cuomo’s podcast, where he claimed that Trump is performing better in national polls than during his 2016 and 2020 runs. McLaughlin also noted that Trump is either tied or ahead in several key battleground states, suggesting momentum for the former president as the 2024 election draws nearer.
Trump’s Strong Polling Numbers in 2024
According to McLaughlin, Trump’s current standing in both national polls and battleground states is notably better than it was at similar points in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. He pointed to the RealClearPolitics average, which aggregates multiple national and state polls, as more accurate than other poll trackers like FiveThirtyEight. Based on RealClearPolitics data, McLaughlin argued that Trump would secure 286 electoral votes if the election were held today, surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency.
McLaughlin contrasted this with the 2020 election, when many polls showed then-candidate Joe Biden with a significant lead over Trump. For instance, he recalled that in the days leading up to the 2020 election, various polling organizations, such as YouGov and NBC, had Biden ahead by as much as 10 points nationally. Despite these predictions, Trump performed better than expected, though he ultimately lost the election to Biden.
Battleground States: Key to Victory
McLaughlin emphasized the importance of battleground states in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. He claimed that Trump is either leading or tied in seven crucial swing states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and others. McLaughlin stated that Trump’s strong presence in these states mirrors his electoral success in 2016, when he defied pollsters’ expectations and secured a victory.
According to McLaughlin, Trump’s frequent visits to battleground states and his presence in regions recovering from recent natural disasters, such as North Carolina following a hurricane, have resonated with voters. In contrast, McLaughlin critiqued Vice President Kamala Harris for focusing on fundraising efforts in California rather than addressing the concerns of these key states, comparing her inaction to past political missteps such as Hurricane Katrina.
A Cautious Outlook
Despite Trump’s strong polling numbers, McLaughlin acknowledged that the race is far from over. With over a month left until Election Day, McLaughlin stressed the importance of continued effort and engagement, urging Trump’s campaign to act as though they are behind to maintain momentum. He noted that political polling is always subject to change, and the final weeks of the campaign could be critical.
In conclusion, while McLaughlin is confident that Trump is in a strong position heading into November, he remains cautious, recognizing that the political landscape can shift rapidly in the lead-up to an election. For now, the polling indicates that Trump is outperforming his previous campaigns, but the outcome will ultimately depend on the dynamics in those key battleground states.
